A tool designed to estimate the potential gains or losses associated with a futures contract is essential for traders. This device employs various inputs, such as the contract’s entry and exit prices, contract size, and commission fees, to provide a projected financial outcome. For instance, if a trader buys a futures contract at $100 and later sells it at $105, with a contract size of 1,000 units and $5 in commission, the tool calculates a profit of $4,995 ((105-100) * 1000 -5).
The utilization of such a mechanism is crucial for risk management and strategic decision-making in futures trading. It allows participants to assess the viability of potential trades before execution, thereby aiding in the minimization of financial exposure. Historically, these calculations were performed manually, a process that was time-consuming and prone to error. The advent of automated tools has significantly improved accuracy and efficiency, enabling traders to respond quickly to market fluctuations.
Understanding the functionality and limitations of such calculations is paramount for effective engagement in futures markets. Subsequent sections will delve into the specific components that influence its accuracy, the practical application of these estimations in formulating trading strategies, and the inherent risks associated with relying solely on projected outcomes.
1. Contract Specifications
A thorough understanding of contract specifications is paramount when utilizing a futures contract profit projection tool. These specifications define the precise terms of the futures contract, influencing the calculation of potential profits and losses. Accurate input of this data is crucial for the tool to provide meaningful estimates.
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Underlying Asset & Unit of Trading
The underlying asset (e.g., crude oil, corn, S&P 500 index) dictates the commodity or financial instrument being traded. The unit of trading specifies the quantity represented by a single contract (e.g., 1,000 barrels of crude oil). This affects the profit or loss multiplier. An incorrect unit of trading entered into the tool will result in a significantly skewed profit projection. For example, mistaking a contract size of 5,000 bushels of wheat for 1,000 bushels would understate potential profits or losses by a factor of five.
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Tick Size and Value
The minimum price fluctuation allowed, known as the tick size, directly impacts the smallest possible profit or loss. The tick value assigns a monetary value to each tick. For instance, a futures contract with a tick size of $0.01 and a tick value of $12.50 means that every $0.01 price movement results in a $12.50 change in the contract’s value. Failure to consider the tick size and value when using the profit calculator will prevent accurate calculation of potential gains or losses based on small price fluctuations.
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Delivery Month
The delivery month indicates when the contract expires and the underlying asset is to be delivered (if applicable). This factor does not directly affect the profit estimation itself. However, different delivery months have different prices. A later delivery month might command a higher price due to storage costs and future expectations. Entering the incorrect delivery month into the tool will lead to an inaccurate entry price, and consequently, an inaccurate profit projection.
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Exchange Listing
The exchange on which the contract is listed specifies the governing rules and regulations. While it doesn’t directly impact the profit calculation, it is important for verifying the correct contract specifications, tick size, and trading hours, ensuring that the user is referencing the correct data to be input into a profit calculator. Different exchanges might offer similar contracts with slightly varied specifications; using information from the wrong exchange will generate erroneous results.
In conclusion, contract specifications are fundamental inputs to a futures contract profit projection tool. Their accuracy dictates the reliability of the estimated profit or loss. Neglecting these specifications leads to flawed analyses and potentially poor trading decisions. Understanding the nuances of each specification ensures traders can effectively employ the tool for risk management and profit maximization.
2. Entry Price
The entry price serves as the foundational reference point within a futures contract profit projection tool. It represents the price at which a trader initiates a position, either by buying (going long) or selling (going short) a futures contract. This value is indispensable, as it directly influences the calculated profit or loss when compared against the subsequent exit price. An inaccurate entry price will invariably lead to a misrepresentation of the potential financial outcome. For instance, if a trader enters a long position on a crude oil futures contract at $80 per barrel, that $80 figure is the baseline. The tool then calculates the profit potential based on the assumption that the exit price will be higher than $80. Conversely, if the tool mistakenly uses $75 as the entry price, it will overestimate the potential profit or underestimate the potential loss, leading to flawed risk assessments.
The impact of the entry price extends beyond simple arithmetic. It is intimately linked to the trader’s strategy and risk tolerance. A well-defined entry price, derived from technical or fundamental analysis, reflects a considered judgment about the future direction of the underlying asset. The projection tool then quantifies the potential gains or losses associated with that judgment. Consider a trader employing a breakout strategy. If the tool utilizes an inaccurate entry price, the trader might falsely perceive the breakout as more or less profitable than it actually is, potentially prompting premature or delayed trade execution. In addition, margin requirements, which are directly affected by the contract value (a factor influenced by the entry price), play a crucial role in managing risk effectively.
In summary, the entry price is not merely an input into a futures contract profit projection tool; it is the cornerstone upon which the entire calculation rests. Its accuracy is paramount to the tool’s utility in supporting informed trading decisions and effective risk management. Traders must ensure the entry price is verified and precise, reflecting the actual price at which the position was established, to derive meaningful insights from the profit calculation.
3. Exit Price
The exit price is a critical determinant within a futures contract profit projection instrument. It represents the price at which a trader liquidates an existing position, effectively closing out the futures contract. The difference between the entry price and this exit price directly dictates the profit or loss generated by the trade. A tool’s accuracy in projecting potential outcomes is fundamentally tied to the precision with which this value is considered. For instance, a trader who initially purchased a futures contract at $50 and sells it at $55 realizes a profit directly correlated to the $5 difference. The tool accurately quantifies this gain. Conversely, selling the same contract at $45 would result in a loss precisely calculable by the same mechanism. Without an accurate exit price forecast, the projected profit or loss figure becomes unreliable, undermining the tool’s practical value.
The forecasting of a probable exit price is not simply a matter of speculation; it relies on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination thereof. Traders often utilize charting patterns, support and resistance levels, economic indicators, and news events to estimate potential price targets. Consider a scenario where a trader anticipates an increase in demand for a commodity based on upcoming economic data. This expectation might lead to a predicted exit price higher than the current market value. Conversely, unexpected regulatory changes or adverse weather conditions could prompt a trader to forecast a lower exit price. The tool then translates these price predictions into projected financial outcomes, enabling the trader to assess the potential risks and rewards associated with the trade. However, it is important to understand that even with meticulous analysis, unforeseen market events can significantly alter the actual exit price, leading to deviations from the initial projections.
In conclusion, the exit price is an indispensable component within the functionality of a futures contract profit projection tool. Its accurate estimation is essential for informed decision-making and effective risk management. The inherent challenge lies in the market’s dynamic nature, which necessitates ongoing monitoring and adjustments to exit price forecasts. Understanding this dynamic interplay between analysis, prediction, and actual market outcomes is vital for anyone seeking to effectively utilize such a tool in futures trading.
4. Contract Size
The contract size directly determines the magnitude of profit or loss realized from a futures contract. Within the mechanism of a futures contract profit projection tool, the contract size serves as a multiplier. This value is applied to the difference between the entry and exit prices to calculate the overall financial outcome. The larger the contract size, the greater the potential profit, and conversely, the greater the potential loss for any given price movement. For example, if a trader buys one gold futures contract at $1,800 per ounce and sells it at $1,810 per ounce, with a contract size of 100 ounces, the profit before commissions would be $1,000. If the contract size were only 10 ounces, the profit would be $100 for the same price movement. This exemplifies how contract size magnifies the impact of price fluctuations. Without accurate consideration of the contract size within the profit projection tool, the resulting estimates are fundamentally unreliable.
The selection of an appropriate contract size involves careful assessment of risk tolerance and capital availability. While larger contract sizes offer the potential for significant gains, they also expose the trader to proportionally larger losses. Traders often use position sizing strategies, considering factors such as account equity, risk percentage per trade, and the contract’s volatility, to determine the suitable contract size. For instance, a trader with a $50,000 account might risk a maximum of 2% per trade, or $1,000. The trader uses the profit projection tool to simulate various price movements and contract sizes to identify a combination that aligns with their risk parameters. This process enables the trader to manage the financial exposure while maximizing the potential for profits. Failure to adequately account for the contract size in relation to available capital can lead to overleveraging and increased risk of substantial losses.
In summary, the contract size is an indispensable component in a futures contract profit calculation, directly scaling the potential financial outcome. Accurate input and prudent consideration of the contract size are vital for effective risk management and informed decision-making. An underestimation or misunderstanding of its impact can result in unforeseen financial consequences, while its strategic utilization can significantly enhance profitability within the futures market. The integration of contract size with risk assessment is therefore a foundational element of successful futures trading.
5. Commission Fees
Commission fees represent a direct cost incurred in the trading of futures contracts. The accuracy of a futures contract profit projection tool depends significantly on the inclusion and precision of commission fee data, impacting the ultimate calculation of net profit or loss.
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Impact on Net Profitability
Commission fees directly reduce the gross profit generated from a futures trade. The profit calculation must account for these fees to provide a realistic assessment of net profitability. For instance, a trader executing a round-trip trade (buying and selling) on a futures contract may incur a commission of $2.50 per contract per side, totaling $5. If the gross profit is $10 per contract, the net profit, after accounting for commissions, is $5. Failure to incorporate these fees in a profit calculation leads to an overestimation of potential gains. The implications are particularly pronounced for high-frequency traders who execute numerous trades daily, as cumulative commission costs can substantially erode overall profitability.
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Variation Among Brokers
Commission structures vary significantly among brokerage firms. Some brokers offer fixed-rate commissions per contract, while others provide tiered pricing based on trading volume. Discount brokers may advertise lower commission rates but may compensate with higher clearing fees or other charges. The futures contract profit calculation must use the correct commission schedule to accurately reflect the true cost of trading. A trader comparing potential returns across different brokers should incorporate the applicable commission fees into the tool to determine the most cost-effective option. Erroneously using a lower commission rate than what is actually charged results in an artificially inflated profit projection.
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Round-Trip Consideration
Commission fees are typically charged upon both the opening and closing of a futures contract, constituting a “round-trip” cost. The calculation tool must consider the cumulative cost of opening and closing commissions to determine the total expense. A trader calculating potential profit should factor in the round-trip commission cost, as neglecting to do so misrepresents the true cost of the transaction. For example, if a broker charges $2 per contract to enter and $2 per contract to exit, the round-trip commission expense is $4. This total cost directly affects the net profit calculation and must be accounted for within the profit projection tool.
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Influence on Break-Even Point
Commission fees influence the break-even point of a futures trade, which is the price level at which the trade neither generates a profit nor incurs a loss. The break-even point calculation must incorporate commission fees to determine the price movement needed to offset the trading costs. A trader must determine the break-even point, inclusive of commissions, to establish realistic profit targets and risk parameters. The profit calculator tool can be used to assess the impact of commissions on the break-even point. Higher commission fees necessitate a larger price movement to achieve profitability. The interplay between commission fees and the break-even point impacts the overall viability of a trading strategy.
Accounting for commission fees within the profit projection mechanism is essential for providing a realistic assessment of the financial implications associated with futures trading. Neglecting these fees compromises the tool’s accuracy and may lead to suboptimal trading decisions. A profit calculation, therefore, serves as an essential element in pre-trade analysis, contributing to risk management and informed decision-making.
6. Slippage Costs
Slippage costs, representing the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed, significantly impact the accuracy of a futures contract profit projection instrument. This discrepancy arises due to the time lag between order placement and execution, particularly in volatile market conditions or when trading less liquid contracts. For example, a trader may intend to buy a futures contract at $100, but the actual purchase occurs at $100.50 due to rapid price movement or insufficient market liquidity. This $0.50 difference per contract directly reduces the potential profit or increases the potential loss, thereby skewing the anticipated outcome generated by the projection tool.
The incorporation of potential slippage costs into a futures contract profit calculation is crucial for realistic risk assessment. While a trader may target a specific entry or exit price based on technical or fundamental analysis, the actual execution price may deviate, especially when using market orders. The projection tool can be adjusted to factor in a slippage buffer, reflecting historical slippage data for a given contract and market conditions. For instance, if historical data indicates an average slippage of $0.25 per contract, this value can be subtracted from the projected profit or added to the projected loss. Strategies that rely on precision entry and exit points are particularly susceptible to slippage, potentially nullifying the planned profitability. Automated trading systems, while designed for rapid execution, are not immune to slippage, especially during periods of high volatility. The failure to account for slippage may result in overoptimistic profit projections and inadequate risk mitigation strategies.
In summary, slippage represents a tangible cost in futures trading and necessitates careful consideration when utilizing a futures contract profit projection tool. Accurate estimation and inclusion of slippage costs are paramount for realistic financial modeling and informed trading decisions. The omission of slippage can lead to a distorted perception of potential gains and an underestimation of potential risks. Consequently, integrating slippage analysis within pre-trade planning enhances the robustness and reliability of profit projections and facilitates more effective risk management practices. Recognizing the inherent uncertainty associated with slippage, particularly in volatile markets, promotes more conservative trading strategies and a greater awareness of the true costs involved in futures trading.
7. Margin requirements
Margin requirements exert a direct influence on the utility and accuracy of a futures contract profit calculation tool. These requirements represent the funds a trader must deposit and maintain in a brokerage account to control a futures contract. The initial margin is the amount required to initiate a position, while the maintenance margin is the minimum amount that must be maintained in the account to avoid liquidation. A futures contract profit tool provides a projection of potential profit or loss, but it is essential to contextualize this projection within the framework of margin requirements. For instance, a tool might project a potential profit of $5,000 on a given trade. However, if the margin requirement for that trade is $4,000, the trader must have at least that amount available in the account. Furthermore, if the trade moves against the trader, and the account balance falls below the maintenance margin, the trader will face a margin call, requiring additional funds to be deposited. This necessitates a proper understanding of margin requirements, which a profit projection tool alone cannot provide, emphasizing the significance of considering these requirements alongside potential profit projections.
The interplay between margin requirements and the projection of potential profit or loss significantly affects risk management strategies. A trader may be tempted to maximize potential profits by trading with high leverage, using a small margin deposit to control a large contract. However, this approach increases the risk of a margin call if the market moves unfavorably. A well-informed trader utilizes a profit projection tool to estimate potential gains but also assesses the potential losses relative to the margin requirements. Consider a scenario where a trader projects a potential $2,000 profit with a margin requirement of $1,000. If the trader’s account balance is only $1,200, a relatively small adverse price movement could trigger a margin call, forcing the trader to either deposit additional funds or liquidate the position at a loss. The trader, in this case, has not adequately factored in the margin requirements when evaluating the trades viability.
In conclusion, margin requirements are an integral, but often overlooked, consideration in conjunction with the use of a futures contract profit projection instrument. While the tool effectively estimates potential financial outcomes, it is crucial to integrate margin requirements into risk assessment and capital management practices. The appropriate balance between potential profitability and margin obligations is critical for sustainable futures trading. Failure to adequately account for these factors may result in unexpected financial constraints, forced liquidations, and increased financial risk.
8. Volatility Impact
Volatility profoundly affects the accuracy and reliability of a futures contract profit projection instrument. Greater volatility, characterized by rapid and significant price fluctuations, introduces substantial uncertainty into both potential profit and loss calculations. The fundamental premise of such a tool, which relies on projecting future price movements, is challenged in environments where prices exhibit erratic behavior. For example, a trader using a profit calculation tool before a major economic announcement might estimate a moderate profit based on prevailing market conditions. However, if the announcement triggers a sharp, unexpected price swing, the actual profit or loss could deviate drastically from the initial projection. This deviation underscores the critical role volatility plays as a confounding factor, rendering static profit projections less dependable in dynamic market conditions. Consequently, the predictive power of such a tool diminishes as volatility escalates, necessitating adjustments to trading strategies and risk management protocols.
The impact of volatility extends to the selection and application of trading strategies. In periods of low volatility, traders may employ strategies that capitalize on small price movements, relying on the profit projection tool to estimate potential gains with reasonable accuracy. Conversely, high volatility requires a more conservative approach, with wider profit targets and stop-loss orders to accommodate larger price swings. The profit projection tool can still be valuable in these scenarios, but its output must be interpreted with caution, acknowledging the increased likelihood of deviation between projected and actual outcomes. For example, a trader employing a breakout strategy during high volatility might use the tool to estimate potential profits based on various breakout price levels. However, the trader must also consider the increased risk of false breakouts and incorporate wider stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements, which could significantly reduce the profitability of the trade. The adaptability of trading strategies, coupled with a nuanced understanding of volatility’s influence, is essential for successful futures trading.
In conclusion, volatility represents a significant challenge to the precision of a futures contract profit projection instrument. Its influence necessitates a more dynamic and adaptive approach to risk management and trading strategy selection. While the tool provides a valuable framework for estimating potential profits and losses, its output must be interpreted within the context of prevailing market volatility. Traders should incorporate volatility indicators, such as the VIX, into their analysis and adjust their expectations accordingly. Understanding and accounting for volatilitys impact allows for a more realistic assessment of potential financial outcomes and enhances the probability of achieving sustainable profitability in futures trading.
9. Tax implications
The accurate assessment of potential profitability in futures trading necessitates careful consideration of tax implications. While a futures contract profit calculation instrument projects gross profits or losses, the actual financial outcome is contingent upon applicable tax regulations. Failing to account for these tax considerations can significantly distort the perceived profitability of a trading strategy.
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Mark-to-Market Accounting
Futures contracts are typically subject to mark-to-market accounting. This means that profits and losses are recognized and taxed annually, regardless of whether the contracts are closed out. For example, if a trader holds a futures contract that has appreciated in value by $10,000 at year-end, this gain is taxable even if the contract remains open. The futures contract profit calculation tool must be used in conjunction with an understanding of mark-to-market rules to estimate the tax liability accurately. Failure to consider this system can lead to unexpected tax obligations and cash flow challenges. The profit projection is, therefore, a gross figure that needs adjustment for tax liabilities arising from mark-to-market rules.
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Section 1256 Contracts
Section 1256 of the Internal Revenue Code governs the taxation of regulated futures contracts (RFCs). Under this section, profits and losses from RFCs are taxed as 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of the holding period. A trader utilizing the futures contract profit projection tool should be aware that the projected profits will be taxed at this blended rate. Accurately calculating the tax liability requires applying this 60/40 rule to the projected gains or losses. Misunderstanding or neglecting this specific tax treatment can result in an inaccurate estimation of after-tax profitability. The profit projection, therefore, needs to be adjusted based on the Section 1256 tax treatment for an accurate portrayal of the traders ultimate financial outcome.
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Wash Sale Rule Limitations
The wash sale rule, which disallows the deduction of losses when substantially identical securities are repurchased within 30 days, has limited applicability to futures contracts. Due to the mark-to-market accounting system, the wash sale rule has little or no effect on futures contracts. Therefore, a trader must be cognizant that despite this fact, an exact calculation of wash sale implications is often necessary. The futures contract profit projection tool’s estimates should be adjusted accordingly, or left untouched if the loss is determined to be fully deductible due to the specific characteristics of futures contracts. This differentiation is crucial for precise tax planning and reporting.
In conclusion, the effective use of a futures contract profit calculation tool necessitates a comprehensive understanding of applicable tax regulations. The profit projections generated by the tool represent gross values that must be adjusted to reflect tax liabilities arising from mark-to-market accounting and Section 1256 rules. Failure to account for these tax considerations can lead to inaccurate financial planning and unexpected tax obligations. Traders must, therefore, integrate tax planning into their overall trading strategy to ensure that the perceived profitability aligns with the actual after-tax financial outcome. Integration will involve a detailed understanding of contract structure, wash sales rules, and any applicable state or local tax laws, as well.
Frequently Asked Questions
This section addresses common inquiries regarding the application and limitations of futures contract profit calculation tools. The responses provided aim to clarify key concepts and promote a more informed understanding of these instruments.
Question 1: What assumptions underlie the estimations generated by a futures contract profit calculator?
The estimations rely on several critical assumptions, including the accuracy of the entry and exit prices, the contract size, and commission fees. The tool presumes that the input data is precise and that no unforeseen market events will significantly alter the predicted outcome. In reality, market volatility and slippage can introduce deviations from these projections.
Question 2: How do commission fees affect the projected profitability of a futures contract?
Commission fees directly reduce the net profit realized from a futures trade. A futures contract profit calculator must incorporate the round-trip commission costs (fees for both entering and exiting the position) to provide a realistic assessment of net profitability. The tool’s value is diminished if it fails to account for these transactional costs.
Question 3: What is the role of margin requirements in the context of futures contract profit calculation?
Margin requirements represent the funds required to control a futures contract. While a futures contract profit calculator projects potential profit or loss, it is crucial to consider these projections within the framework of margin obligations. Insufficient capital to meet margin requirements can lead to forced liquidation and increased financial risk.
Question 4: How does market volatility impact the reliability of a futures contract profit calculator?
Increased market volatility diminishes the reliability of profit projections. Rapid and significant price fluctuations can cause actual outcomes to deviate substantially from initial estimates. A more dynamic approach to risk management is necessary in volatile market conditions.
Question 5: Are tax implications factored into the output of a standard futures contract profit calculator?
Typically, a standard futures contract profit calculator does not account for tax implications. The projections represent gross profits or losses that are subject to taxation. Traders must independently assess the tax liabilities associated with their futures trading activities, considering factors such as mark-to-market accounting and Section 1256 rules.
Question 6: What are the limitations of relying solely on a futures contract profit calculator for trading decisions?
Relying solely on a futures contract profit calculator is ill-advised. The tool provides a useful framework for estimating potential financial outcomes, but it does not incorporate all the variables that can influence trading results. Prudent trading decisions require a comprehensive analysis of market conditions, risk tolerance, capital availability, and regulatory considerations.
These answers underscore the importance of using futures contract profit calculation tools judiciously, recognizing their limitations and integrating them with sound risk management and trading practices. The tool should not be used as a crystal ball, but rather, as a component of a comprehensive and soundly reasoned trading plan.
The following section will delve into advanced strategies.
Tips for Enhancing Futures Trading with Profit Calculators
This section outlines key strategies for maximizing the utility of a futures contract profit calculator, focusing on accuracy, risk mitigation, and informed decision-making.
Tip 1: Ensure Data Precision: Accurate data input is paramount. Verify entry and exit prices, contract size, and commission fees from reliable sources. Errors in input data will invariably lead to inaccurate profit projections, undermining the tool’s effectiveness.
Tip 2: Factor in Slippage: Account for potential slippage, the difference between the expected trade price and the actual execution price. Slippage often occurs during periods of high volatility or low liquidity. Incorporate a slippage buffer into the profit calculation to reflect realistic trading conditions.
Tip 3: Consider Volatility: Recognize the impact of market volatility on profit projections. In highly volatile markets, projected profits and losses are subject to greater deviation. Adjust trading strategies and risk parameters to accommodate increased price fluctuations.
Tip 4: Account for Margin Requirements: Evaluate potential profits in the context of margin requirements. Ensure adequate capital is available to meet margin obligations and withstand adverse price movements. Overleveraging increases the risk of margin calls and forced liquidations.
Tip 5: Simulate Multiple Scenarios: Utilize the profit calculator to simulate various trading scenarios. Experiment with different entry and exit prices, contract sizes, and risk parameters to assess potential outcomes under diverse market conditions. This practice allows for the evaluation of various potential financial outcomes associated with each trading plan, and can help narrow the best course of action.
Tip 6: Review Brokerage Fees: Assess the impact of commission and brokerage fees on your profit outcome. This is particularly important when executing multiple trade in various assets, and helps maximize the ultimate return of the process.
Tip 7: Do Not Over-Rely: Avoid over-reliance on the profit calculator. This tool functions as an aid to risk assessment and decision-making, but does not ensure a profitable trading outcome. Supplement its use with thorough market analysis, technical indicators, and a well-defined trading strategy. These strategies are also necessary to protect against market dynamics and volatility.
By adhering to these tips, traders can enhance the effectiveness of futures contract profit projection instruments and promote more informed and strategic decision-making in the futures market. A consistent and thorough approach can maximize the financial results of trades, as well.
The subsequent sections will explore how to utilize these tips in different futures trading strategies and markets.
In Conclusion
This discussion has examined the futures contract profit calculator, elucidating its function, components, and limitations. Accurate input of data, including contract specifications, entry and exit prices, and commission fees, is essential for generating reliable estimations. The tool’s utility is significantly influenced by factors such as market volatility, slippage, and margin requirements, necessitating a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and capital management. Over-reliance on the projections generated by such an instrument without considering these external factors can lead to flawed trading decisions.
Effective utilization of a futures contract profit calculator requires a strategic understanding of its capabilities and inherent limitations. The instrument serves as a valuable aid in pre-trade analysis and risk mitigation, facilitating more informed decision-making. However, the tool remains only one component of a soundly reasoned trading plan. Continuous market monitoring, adaptability, and adherence to established trading principles are imperative for navigating the complexities of futures trading and achieving sustainable profitability. Therefore, traders should integrate the use of the futures contract profit calculator into a broader framework of market analysis and risk management practices to enhance the probability of successful outcomes.
